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XNA's pretty powerful. The polycounts it can handle... I reckon you could easily look at HL2 as a reference point (i.e. 500-600 tri mark for a 3rd person weapon - although maybe aim at 300ish for most melee weapons as they're quite simple things).
Ultimately, though, you'd need to just mess around and see at what point it breaks. Throw a few really high poly objects at it, lots of really low poly ones, some animated characters... and just see where the framerate starts to falter. That'll give you a rough indication of how many polys it can handle on-screen at once.
For an RPG, though, the character is often quite small on the screen and the visual representations of the weapons is sort of secondary to the gameplay, writing, character development and questing, etc... so they do tend to be quite low poly as that means they can kick out loads of variations and can have a lot of things on-screen at once.
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